St. Lucie coastal flood warning: how high the water got

Updated Nov. 1: the Oct. 30 advisory ended at 8 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 31. The weather service issued a new Coastal Flood Advisory for coastal St. Lucie and coastal Martin counties Sunday afternoon, running until 7 p.m. Monday, Nov. 2, alongside a High Surf Advisory and a high rip current risk through late Tuesday night. A Flood Watch for heavy rain also covers the county; our flood watch story has the details.

Updated Oct. 31: the National Weather Service in Melbourne upgraded the watch to a Coastal Flood Warning early Saturday, Oct. 24. It extended the warning several times, and it ended at 2 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 29. Water levels peaked Tuesday morning, Oct. 27. A minor Coastal Flood Advisory runs until 8 p.m. Saturday, and a high rip current risk lasts through late Sunday night. The peak readings and the latest advisory are below the original story.

How high the water got

The warning took effect at 2 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 25. The weather service’s warning issued at 2:35 a.m. Saturday said coastal roads may be closed and that low-lying homes, businesses and some critical infrastructure would be inundated. Its final extension, issued at 2:01 a.m. Thursday, ran the warning to 2 p.m. that afternoon.

The highest readings came late Tuesday morning, Oct. 27, according to the weather service’s river gauges:

Ankona and Binney Dock are the two gauges in St. Lucie County. Steele Point and Jensen Beach are in Martin County. Both passed the 3-foot level the weather service sets for moderate flooding there. By 7:45 p.m. Friday, the Steele Point reading was down to 1.23 feet, below its 1.5-foot action stage.

What was in effect Oct. 30 and 31

The weather service’s advisory issued at 7:59 p.m. Friday covered coastal St. Lucie and coastal Martin counties:

• Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 31, for minor flooding of low-lying lots, parks and roads near the shoreline. Only isolated road closures were expected.
• High rip current risk through late Sunday night, Nov. 1. “Entering the surf is strongly discouraged,” the advisory said.

The original forecast, Oct. 24

Significant coastal flooding is possible along the St. Lucie County coast from late Saturday night through Monday evening. The National Weather Service in Melbourne issued a Coastal Flood Watch for coastal St. Lucie and coastal Martin counties Friday afternoon.

A Coastal Flood Advisory for minor flooding is already in effect until 2 a.m. Sunday. A high rip current risk runs through Monday evening. The details are in the weather service’s coastal hazard message issued at 2:28 p.m. Friday.

Most of Port St. Lucie sits in the weather service’s inland St. Lucie forecast zone, which the watch does not cover. It does cover the county’s barrier island and Indian River shoreline: Hutchinson Island, the Fort Pierce waterfront, about 10 miles north, and Jensen Beach, about nine miles southeast in Martin County.

What the weather service expects

The weather service warned that:

• some roads may be closed
• low-lying homes, businesses and some critical infrastructure may flood
• shoreline erosion may occur
• rip currents can sweep even strong swimmers away from shore

Strengthening northeast winds, high astronomical tides and building seas are behind it. The forecasters’ area forecast discussion on Friday forecast minor to moderate coastal flooding around high tide. They said the tides of greatest concern are Sunday and Monday mornings.

The same discussion forecast breaking waves of 7 to 12 feet and moderate to major beach erosion. “Entering the surf is STRONGLY discouraged,” the forecasters wrote. They added that even visiting the beach could become hazardous, especially around high tide. A gale watch covers the offshore waters from Saturday evening through Monday evening.

The water is already up

River gauges on the Indian River and the St. Lucie River were above flood thresholds Friday night. At about 8:50 p.m. Friday, according to the National Weather Service’s river gauges:

The readings are measured above mean higher high water, the average height of the day’s higher high tide. Action stage is the level at which the weather service and local agencies start preparing to respond. Ankona is on the Indian River south of Fort Pierce.

High tide times

These are NOAA’s predicted high tides. They do not include the extra water the wind is pushing in, so the real levels are likely to be higher.

The North Fork station sits on the river at Port St. Lucie’s southeastern edge. High tide comes about three hours later there than at the inlet.

Storms and wind in Port St. Lucie

Away from the coast, the weather service’s forecast for Port St. Lucie calls for:

• Saturday night: a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, gusts to 25 mph
• Sunday: showers and thunderstorms, an 80% chance, with gusts to 35 mph
• Monday: showers and thunderstorms likely, a 60% chance, with gusts to 40 mph

Forecasters said minor flooding from repeated rounds of showers could not be ruled out.

What it means for you

• Stay out of the ocean through at least Monday. Rip currents and 7- to 12-foot breakers make the surf dangerous, and the beach itself can be hazardous at high tide.
• If you drive on Hutchinson Island or along the Indian River, plan trips around the high tide times above, and never drive through standing water.
• If you live on the river or the lagoon, move vehicles, boats and anything stored at ground level to higher ground before Sunday morning.
• Keep an eye out for an upgrade. A watch means flooding is possible. The weather service will issue a Coastal Flood Warning if significant flooding becomes likely.

Our hurricane prep guide has the county emergency contacts, and our power outages page has the FPL outage map if gusts bring lines down. Road closures go on our road construction and closures page.